As we get more precise information (for example, from the Webb Space Telescope) the cloud of possible positions gets smaller. If the cloud still intersects the Earth’s position, the smaller cloud of ...

"Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write." – H.G. Wells ...

So far there have been 86 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

So far there have been 78 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games. Here are the predictions for Week 11. The ...

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Ipsos, the polling firm, has again been asking people questions to which they can’t reasonably be expected to know the answer, and finding they in fact don’t. For example, this graph shows what ...