Nvidia's stock no longer trades at a huge premium. It's now priced at 26 times forward earnings, which is cheaper than many of its big tech peers. So, even if Nvidia still grows but falls short of its $1 trillion in revenue goal, then it should still be a successful investment, as it's not starting off with an unrealistic valuation.

The broader market would have to cooperate, and the AI narrative would have to return for, NVDA stock to break above $220 this year. Compared to most other AI stocks right now, NVDA is surprisingly the cheapest of the bunch. It trades at 41 times earnings, while historically, it has traded around 52 times earnings at the median.